However, macroscopic behaviors in non-equilibrium systems are not described by the 2nd law. The earth is not a closed system: We are in sunlight with emission of heat to space, and therefore the earth and human affairs are no…
Nope nope nope. Careful here. The earth is in a state of stable equilibrium. It is the nature of stable equilibria that they can support insignificant changes in their state, which is defined as a force significant enough to move it out from one stable equilibrium into a state of disorder (even an unstable equilibrium) such that things self-organise into another. It’s a seismic shift from one position which may in turn, have resulted through a catastrophic failure (mathematically defined) after a gradual build up over time.
Minor oscillations, such as giving off some IR heat (convection and conduction can’t happen in space) do not change the basic position of that equilibrium, since their emission restores to the central equilibrium state. This allows any system a degree of oscillatory freedom.