The Brexit Party: Remain’s only hope

The addition of the new party into the mix, splits BluKIP. But is it enough?

Last week’s formal launch of the Brexit party, with yet another bus, is the latest attempt to galvanise the Leave vote across a dedicated party for those disillusioned with Conservative appeasement and UKIP’s far-right surge.

Splitting your electorate is normally considered a bad thing. Yet, with proportional representation, that split doesn’t automatically shift the BluKIP cohort out of the picture and crucially for Remainers, is it enough to give a pro-Remain voting strategy a chance?

BlueKIP Brexit Party

Before getting to the analysis on our model, there are a few results worth remembering.

BlueKIP Share is Down

Seat Allocation

(Green indicates good news for Remain)

Regional Results with the Brexit Party present

The map looks pretty good in some area. London gains one more pro-EU vote and so does the East of England, but that is tight. The East of England is not as likely to distribute away from Labour and this result is statistically fragile. With only 7,500 regional votes between them and Conservatives gaining another seat.

The pro-Remain gains (or should I say ‘moves’) elsewhere in the country include:

  • The North West — albeit the region veers further right overall (5 right-wing in 2014 versus 6 right wing in 2019)
  • Scotland (where the Brexit Party score an own goal)
  • London — Gaining one extra seat
The Brexit Party influence on Great Britain’s European Elections landscape wipes out UKIP in Scotland while hardening most areas, including the whole of the North East of England, also giving Remainers one more pro-Remain MEP.

Conclusion

Knocking out all right-wing parties in Scotland, the Brexit Party will certainly be a disruptive influence on the European Elections. That is not in doubt. However, it will be disruptive for the wrong reasons for Leave support. Yet, from the common remain discourse, The Brexit Party appear to be throwing Remain the only lifeline they have.

EA, Stats, Math & Code into a fizz of a biz or two. Founder: Automedi & Axelisys. Proud Manc. Citizen of the World. I’ve been busy

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